Every innovation manager knows the pressure.
Execution (i.e. distribution, promotion, media) requires significant financial muscle. Which is why innovation teams dream of finding the big sustaining concept: the kind of innovation that can stand on its own legs and succeed over time, rather than relying on constant execution support.
Yet anyone who has worked in innovation has wrestled with the nagging question:
Does the concept itself really matter?
In many organizations, the prevailing belief is clear: innovation success is mostly about execution. Get the product into enough stores, support it with promotions and media, and success will follow.
In this view, the concept itself plays only a minor role: almost like an 80/20 equation where distribution does the heavy lifting and the concept value proposition barely matters.
Execution certainly matters.
But is it the whole story?
What if one of the most powerful drivers of innovation success is the concept itself, something with genuine consumer appeal that drives total sales? What if we can identify concepts that can sustain themselves long term without constant execution support?
We set out to explore these questions directly:
Is distribution the primary driver of total sales, or can the intrinsic appeal of the concept also play a decisive role?
Here’s the short answer --> the concept matters a lot more than most teams assume. Our analysis shows that strong concepts can generate their own consumer pull and sustain performance even without heavy distribution push.
To investigate this, we analyzed point-of-sale (POS) data from the U.S. candy category, looking at 904 new product launches between 2023 and 2025, each with at least six months of sales data.
In our analysis we included several retail metrics, including pricing and promotion effects. 3 of the key metrics that we focused on are:
To understand the role of concept appeal, we compared the Rate of Sales (ROS) of the 904 new product launches against a broader set of 3,012 unique SKUs in the category over the same two-year period.
We then ranked the launches into five ROS quintiles:
The results were striking, though perhaps not surprising.
Most candy innovations fail.
In fact, three out of four new launches fall into the bottom 5th ROS quintile, meaning they struggle to generate sufficient consumer demand even during the critical launch window (3-6 months post launch).
Intrinsic concept appeal, as measured by ROS, persists beyond the launch window (6 months). Analysis of launches at 7-15 months shows strong quintile stickiness, with most products remaining in their original ROS quintiles post-launch. This highlights the critical importance of getting the concept right upfront as initial ROS performance continues to persist well beyond the launch window
Let’s remind us of our central question:
Is distribution the primary driver of total sales, or can the intrinsic appeal of the concept also play a decisive role?
To answer this, we used log-log regression to model the impact of distribution and concept appeal (represented by ROS) on total sales.
Our analysis reveals an important insight.
Doubling distribution (ACV%) (at 3-6 months post-launch) doubles the total sales in the post-launch period (7-9 months post launch)
BUT
Concept strength is not far behind! Doubling concept strength (ROS at 3–6 months) drives ~50% uplift in total sales, even as launch momentum begins to fade in the post launch period (7-9 months post launch).
In other words, distribution is not the only king. Concept strength has also a powerful impact on sales performance.
Even modest improvements in ROS can generate double-digit gains in total sales during the post-launch phase.
But the most striking finding appears when a concept crosses a critical threshold.
Concepts that move out of the bottom 5th ROS quintile to 4th quintile see a dramatic uplift in sales (5-10x), showing that early concept appeal has lasting impact.
This highlights the phenomenal upside of launching with a concept that already shows a strong appeal. When a product generates meaningful consumer pull from the start, sales momentum sustains even as post-launch support tapers off.
Let’s illustrate this with a real example. One of the products in our analysis, Frankford Kellogg’s Rice Krispies Strawberry Candy Bar, launched with an ROS in the 5th quintile (3-6 months post launch), signaling weak intrinsic concept appeal.
We then modeled a scenario where the concept is improved, shifting its ROS into higher quintiles (1-4). For this exercise, we assume ROS aligns with the average of each target quintile, while holding distribution (ACV%) and promotions constant.
The implication is clear: even moving out of the lowest quintile, 5th to the 4th, can nearly double total sales. Upside compounds significantly as concepts move into higher quintiles, highlighting the disproportionate value of stronger consumer appeal.
Promotions show negative impact, while pricing has no clear impact on post-launch total sales
What role do other execution levers, such as promotions and pricing, play in driving total sales?
We modeled the impact of promotions on total sales, incorporating promotion as the % share of sales sold on promotion (by value). The results show a clear negative relationship: increasing the share of promotional sales is associated with a decline in total sales. Specifically, a 10-percentage-point increase in promo share (measured at 3-6 months) corresponds to total sales (at 7-9 months) dropping to 0.54x of the original value.
This suggests that giving a heavier promotion is not driving total sales post launch window. Products with weaker intrinsic appeal often rely more heavily on promotions to drive trial. As a result, higher promo intensity may be less a driver of growth and more a signal of struggling products, where discounts fail to compensate for weak consumer pull.
No clear relationship was observed between pricing levels and total sales and advertising spend was not included in the modelling.
What does this mean for insight and innovation leaders?
Distribution will always matter in innovation. It is essential to bring new ideas to market and scale their reach.
But our analysis shows that in addition to distribution, the concept pull (represented by ROS) can also be a strong driver of total sales.
Strong concepts can stand on their own legs and generate consumer pull, even without massive distribution push. Our analysis shows that concept appeal (represented by ROS) has a powerful impact on sales performance. When a concept genuinely resonates with consumers, it creates demand on its own: reducing the need to rely solely on expensive distribution muscle to drive success.
While distribution remains a powerful growth lever, its role can be more targeted. Rather than compensating for weak concepts, distribution is best used to scale concepts that already demonstrate strong consumer appeal. If used to force push a weak concept, it would require much more resources, which instead can be judiciously used to push other products.
Too often teams move quickly from idea generation to launch planning. Yet our analysis shows that even modest improvements in concept appeal can deliver double-digit gains in total sales.
And the real breakthrough happens when a concept crosses a critical threshold. Moving from the bottom ROS quintile to the 4th quintile can trigger a step-change in sales performance, turning a struggling launch into one with real commercial momentum.
Crucially, mobility across quintiles over time is limited. Analysis of launches at 7-15 months shows strong quintile stickiness, with most products remaining in their original ROS performance tiers post-launch.
Our analysis showed that concept appeal plays a decisive role in innovation success, and this is where insight and innovation leaders create the most value.
By uncovering real consumer needs, sharpening value propositions, and iterating concepts before launch, they help organizations design innovations that generate genuine consumer pull.
As an insights researcher myself, it’s great to see concept appeal taking center stage: and with it, the strategic role insights teams truly deserve.
P.S. P.S. This is only a snapshot of what we uncovered, there’s much more to share. Stay tuned!